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Week Ahead Preview — July 13, 2026
Published: Sunday, July 13, 2026 | Coverage period: July 13–17, 2026 | For educational and research purposes only. This is not individualized financial or investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Projections are not guarantees.
1. Economic Calendar
This is one of the most event-dense weeks of the year, combining the official opening of Q2 earnings season with a cascade of high-impact macro releases and — most significantly — the first congressional testimony of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets will be parsing every syllable.
| Date | Release / Event | Time (ET) | Expected Impact & Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 13 | Treasury Budget (June) | 2:00 PM | Low–Medium. A window into fiscal trajectory; relevant given concerns about deficit expansion and its inflationary implications. Bond market will watch. |
| Tue Jul 14 | NFIB Small Business Index (June) | 6:00 AM | Medium. A leading read on Main Street sentiment, hiring plans, and pricing expectations at the small-business level. |
| Tue Jul 14 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | 8:15 AM | Medium. June nonfarm payrolls showed an increase of only 57,000 jobs, falling well short of the projected 110,000 — confirming the overall, controlled cooling of the U.S. economy. ADP data will be scrutinized for confirmation of that trend. |
| Tue Jul 14 | 🔥 CPI (June) — Headline & Core | 8:30 AM | VERY HIGH. The BLS CPI-U increased 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, and over the last 12 months the all items index increased 4.2% before seasonal adjustment. For June, BMO and the broader consensus are looking for headline CPI to drop 0.1% month-over-month, effectively clipping the annual headline inflation rate to 3.9%. May’s monthly print was heavily driven by a geopolitical energy price spike, and this dramatic reversal in energy prices means the headline CPI number for June could actually flip negative. However, core CPI is expected to remain sticky — the real market-mover. While energy is plunging, core inflation remains firm, with core CPI projected to add roughly +0.20 to +0.23 percentage points to the headline. |
| Tue Jul 14 | 🔥 Fed Chair Warsh — House Testimony (Day 1) | 10:00 AM | VERY HIGH. Kevin Warsh is about to make his first appearance before Congress as Federal Reserve chairman; the Tuesday House Financial Services Committee hearing begins at 10 a.m. in Washington. Market participants widely view this testimony as highly significant — as the new chair’s first public grilling by Congress on monetary policy, Warsh’s language and positioning will provide crucial signals for gauging the Fed’s future policy path. The previously released minutes from the June meeting revealed intense internal debate over the rate path, with a minority of officials arguing that a rate hike was already warranted in June. |
| Wed Jul 15 | Empire State Manufacturing Index (July) | 8:30 AM | Medium. First regional manufacturing read for July. Any deterioration adds to recession-risk narrative. |
| Wed Jul 15 | 🔥 PPI (June) — Headline & Core | 8:30 AM | HIGH. A leading indicator of future consumer prices. Given that energy prices pulled back sharply in June, headline PPI may also moderate — but core PPI will be the focal point for the Fed’s policy calculus. |
| Wed Jul 15 | 🔥 Fed Chair Warsh — Senate Testimony (Day 2) | 10:00 AM | VERY HIGH. The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs will meet in open session for the hearing titled “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” with Chairman Kevin Warsh as witness. Shortly after the BLS releases producer price data, Warsh will testify before the Senate committee. Interest rate futures markets continue to broadly price in the Fed’s first rate hike of the year potentially coming at the September meeting. |
| Wed Jul 15 | Fed Beige Book | 2:00 PM | Medium. Qualitative economic conditions by district. Relevant for assessing whether services inflation and consumer-spending softness are broadening geographically. |
| Thu Jul 16 | 🔥 Advance Retail Sales (June) | 8:30 AM | HIGH. Economic growth is rebounding, but consumers are becoming strained by negative real wage growth, weak savings, and rising energy costs. After gasoline prices fell sharply in June, headline retail sales could print soft even if core control-group spending holds up. Watch the ex-auto, ex-gas components. |
| Thu Jul 16 | Initial Jobless Claims | 8:30 AM | Medium. The most recent initial claims print registered 215,000, with the next release date on July 16. The labor market’s resilience relative to June’s weak payrolls report will be closely monitored. |
| Thu Jul 16 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey | 8:30 AM | Medium. Second regional manufacturing data point for July alongside Empire State. A confirming or diverging signal on industrial momentum. |
| Fri Jul 17 | Housing Starts & Building Permits (June) | 8:30 AM | Medium. A rate-sensitive sector. Any deterioration underscores Warsh’s own comment that Fed policy “appears to be somewhat restrictive” in housing. |
| Fri Jul 17 | Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization | 9:15 AM | Medium. Confirms or challenges the manufacturing slowdown narrative signaled by regional surveys. |
| Fri Jul 17 | Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment — Preliminary (July) | 10:00 AM | HIGH. U.S. median inflation expectations for one year ahead rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in June 2026, the highest since September 2023; three-year expectations also increased to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022. The Fed closely watches the Michigan survey’s inflation expectations component. Any further drift higher will make Warsh’s hawkish posture politically and practically unavoidable. |
⚠️ Research Note on Inflation Setup: Investors should prepare for a seemingly contradictory narrative when the June CPI report drops on July 14. The headline monthly number will likely look surprisingly soft, or even negative, potentially generating headlines about how inflation is cooling — but a one-month dip in energy prices doesn’t mean the macro picture has changed. The Fed already bumped its median 2026 inflation forecast up to 3.6% from 2.7% at the mid-June FOMC meeting. Do not be misled by a soft headline print; core and services inflation remain the signal.
2. Earnings Calendar
The second-quarter earnings season begins the week of July 13, with large banks starting to report, and S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow 23.3% year-over-year. This is the most consequential earnings week of the cycle.
| Date | Company (Ticker) | Consensus Est. | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 13 | Fastenal (FAST) | EPS: Est. N/A (pre-mkt) | Industrial distribution bellwether; an early read on MRO demand and distributor pricing power. |
| Tue Jul 14 | JPMorgan Chase (JPM) | Pre-market | JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are all scheduled to report Q2 2026 earnings on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, before the market open. This simultaneous reporting creates a significant market event, especially as it coincides with the June CPI report release. Net interest margin (NIM) is arguably the most critical metric, reflecting the spread between what banks earn on loans and investments versus what they pay for deposits. With the Fed’s rate trajectory uncertain, NIM trends will determine whether banks can sustain profitability growth. On the investment banking front, solid numbers are expected on the equity capital markets side, but M&A activities have been underwhelming. Trading revenues remained robust in Q2, with mid-quarter updates indicating growth rates in the +10% to +15% range. |
| Bank of America (BAC) | Pre-market | ||
| Goldman Sachs (GS) | Pre-market | ||
| Citigroup (C) | Pre-market | ||
| Wells Fargo (WFC) | Pre-market | ||
| Wed Jul 15 | Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | Pre-market | Pharma/MedTech stalwart; guidance on surgical volume recovery and pipeline catalysts will be closely watched. Analysts lowered their estimates for healthcare and consumer staples companies ahead of earnings season, so the bar is lower. |
| Morgan Stanley (MS) | Pre-market | Wealth management trends, advisory fee growth, and commentary on client sentiment will complement the other large bank prints from Tuesday. | |
| BlackRock (BLK) | Pre-market | AUM flows and fee rates reflect investor risk appetite globally. A leading indicator for the entire asset management industry. | |
| ASML Holding (ASML) | Pre-market | Investors will also be watching ASML, whose results remain extremely important to the health of the artificial intelligence trade. ASML has been identified as a top pick heading into earnings season: “It is increasingly evident that larger customers are paying premiums to leading semiconductor capital equipment suppliers to secure allocation.” | |
| United Airlines (UAL) | After close | Key barometer for travel demand and fuel-cost pass-through dynamics amid ongoing Middle East geopolitical uncertainty. | |
| Elevance Health (ELV) | Pre-market | Sets expectations ahead of UNH’s Thursday print; managed care ratio and Medicare Advantage utilization trends are the critical metrics. | |
| Thu Jul 16 | UnitedHealth Group (UNH) | EPS ~$4.85; Rev ~$110.8B (pre-mkt) | UnitedHealth is scheduled to release its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on July 16. Wall Street expects UNH to report Q2 2026 EPS of $4.85, implying about 19% year-over-year growth. The managed care sector is undergoing a profound operational correction in 2026, with UNH leading the turnaround. After facing severe medical cost pressures in 2025, UNH has successfully initiated a margin recovery framework. Also note: this is a current watchlist holding. See Watchlist section below. |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) | Pre-market | TSM’s results remain extremely important to the health of the artificial intelligence trade. Any guidance revision on advanced node capacity will move the entire semiconductor supply chain. The single most important technology print of the week. | |
| Netflix (NFLX) | After close | Analysts note: “There’s a lot riding on Q2 as Netflix faces no shortage of near and longer-term questions, from Q2 engagement trends and potential revisions to 2026 margin guidance to the broader challenge of sustaining growth amid evolving consumer preferences.” | |
| GE Aerospace (GE) | Pre-market | Jet engine supply chain and defense order backlog; geopolitical tensions are a tailwind for defense revenues. A key industrials bellwether. | |
| Abbott Laboratories (ABT) | Pre-market | Medical devices and diagnostics; a complementary data point alongside JNJ and ELV on the healthcare sector’s earnings trajectory. |
📊 Earnings Season Context: Total Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 index are currently expected to be up +24.0% from the same period last year on +11.3% higher revenues, with 11 of the 16 Zacks sectors expected to enjoy positive earnings growth. The Tech sector is expected to deliver earnings growth of +48.5%; excluding the Tech sector’s contribution, Q2 earnings growth for the rest of the S&P 500 would be +12.2%. Earnings announcements from major banks and financials may set the tone for the broader sector and influence investor sentiment.
3. Technical Levels
Broad Market Indices
| Index | Last Close | Key Support | Key Resistance | Technical Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ~7,544 | 6,575–6,600 (50-DMA); 7,353 | 7,560; 7,600 | The S&P 500 closed at 7,543.64 on July 9. The index is in a rising trend channel and is testing resistance at 7,560. This could give a negative reaction, but an upward breakthrough of 7,560 means a positive signal. Buyers stepped in earlier to defend the 6,575–6,600 support zone and the 50-day moving average; after a sharp selloff, the index has started to find buying pressure and is now pushing back to test all-time highs. |
| Nasdaq 100 | ~30,500 | 30,100; 50-DMA (~28,149); 29,400 | 31,000; 30,660 (recent high) | NQ remains structurally bullish above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, but it is currently coiled inside a tightening symmetric triangle with momentum sitting neutral. The next decisive daily close outside 29,400–31,000 is likely to set the tone for the coming weeks — a break above 31,000 favors continuation of the broader uptrend, while a break below the 50-day MA opens up a deeper pullback toward 28,253. The Nasdaq 100 is exhibiting a more fragile short-term structure than the broader market; it has faced a steep, localized pullback as institutional positioning in the AI trade becomes temporarily exhausted. |
Watchlist Holdings — Key Levels
Note: Price data as of close July 10–11, 2026. Technical levels are for research reference only and do not constitute trade recommendations.
| Ticker | Last Price | Support Zone(s) | Resistance Zone(s) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|